Apophis: The Asteroid murderer, 2036

Apophis: The Asteroid murderer, 2036

The Venezuelans, like the inhabitants of the Kamchatka peninsula in far eastern Russia, will now have another reason to worry. Indeed, there is one chance in 45,000 of receiving, on 13 April 2036, the direct impact of an asteroid almost 500 meters in diameter and more than twenty million tons. This, at least one of the venues managed by astronomers to follow, since its discovery in 2004, the trajectory of the asteroid 99942, known as Apophis.

With an orbit around the Sun that is very similar to that of Earth, this large space rock, one of 127 considered by NASA as potentially dangerous, often intersects with our planet. It has been estimated that future approaches will occur in the years 2013, 2021, 2029 and 2036. The first two there is no danger, because Apophis will pass far enough so we can sleep peacefully.

In 2029, however, both paths (the Earth and the asteroid) are so close that when it happens, Apophis is to 38,000 miles (just over a tenth part of what separates us from the Moon) and very close orbits are, nowadays, many of our communications satellites.

Changing course

And then something happens that can greatly complicate things. The force of Earth's gravity will change the asteroid's trajectory, in fact become much more dangerous than the next meeting, on April 13, 2036.

Shortly after being discovered (June 2004), the asteroid was assigned a level four on the Torino Scale (which rate the risk of impact from 0 to 10 where 10 is a safe collision), the maximum degree of danger of all monitored bodies of this type before. At that time, the probability of collision in April, 2036 increased to one in 37. However, subsequent calculations lowered their position on the ladder to level one, which currently occupies with that collision probability of one in 45,000. The following year, in 2037, Apophis will come across the Earth, but only one chance to collide with it from 12.3 million ...

In fact, the program experts NEO (Near Earth Objects) from NASA have calculated that the April 13, 2036 the asteroid about our world could fall anywhere along a huge stretch diagonally across the Pacific Ocean, from Siberia to the South American coast, and which extends to the edges of the African continent.

Most likely, if the collision actually come to pass, that the object is bigger than the Empire State, to fall directly into the water. Some consolation it, as its tremendous energy (equivalent to over one hundred thousand atomic bombs of Hiroshima) would be enough to cause tsunamis several hundred meters. Monster waves then sweep the coasts, with devastating effects on several continents.

Making decisions

A 45,000. This likelihood, very remote, has been sufficient, however, in order to seriously consider drafting a protocol specific focus, which would be responsible United Nations, whose final text could see light in 2009. "Someone will have to make decisions," says Russell Schweickart, a former member of the Apollo missions and founder of the Association of Space Explorers, formed by veteran astronauts and cosmonauts.

This association is the ultimate driving force behind the drafting of this treaty, which must determine what concrete steps would be necessary to continue in the case of confirming the existence of an asteroid impact trajectory with Earth. The first of the workshops to produce the document will take place in May in Strasbourg.

For its part, Congress has tightened the screws to NASA to be taken more seriously the issue. And is that the list of potentially dangerous objects may be increased to several thousand in just a decade. The craters that show on your skin all the planets of the Solar System are the best proof that, sooner or later, a large comet or asteroid will collide with Earth. It is best to prepare now, we're on time ...